[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141843
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-142045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1679
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF KY AND PARTS OF ADJACENT IND...TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141843Z - 142045Z

IT IS NOT YET CLEAR THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ORGANIZED/
STRENGTHENING COLD POOL THAT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE
RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE MID/UPPER 90S ALONG AN
AXIS ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE SURFACE
DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.  LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY IS WEAK...BUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS TRAILING FROM A LOW
AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MIGRATING EAST NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF THE RIVER.  FURTHER INCREASE AND INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS
APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH 21-23Z...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVE VORTEX PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR A DEVELOPING CLUSTER EAST OF
EVANSVILLE THROUGH THE LOUISVILLE AREA AND AREAS TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH.

DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW IS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 KTS...BUT
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BECOMING QUITE STEEP...AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DOWNBURSTS...AND DEVELOPING SURFACE
COLD POOLS.  WITH CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING OF THE CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW...THE THREAT FOR BROADER SCALE...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WIND
GUSTS AT LEAST APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

..KERR.. 08/14/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36688916 37248824 37768725 38368640 39048541 39148474
            38338380 37808401 36748552 36378649 35908767 35878919
            36688916



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