[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 051936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051936
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-OKZ000-052030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1583
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 051936Z - 052030Z

PULSE TSTMS FORMING ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED MICROBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A WW
DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.

TSTM COVERAGE HAS INCREASED ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NEAR DUA TO JBR AS OF 19Z. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 S OF THE BOUNDARY...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IS PRESENT WITH MLCAPE AOA 3000 J/KG INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE WEAK WITH INTERPOLATED
HASKELL OK AND DEQUEEN AR SUGGESTIVE OF MID-LEVEL WLYS AROUND 15-20
KT. CONSENSUS OF MORNING MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE FLOW WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY DURING LATE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...THREAT FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE GREATEST IN THE NEAR-TERM. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED MICROBURSTS MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR MERGING OUTFLOWS.

..GRAMS.. 08/05/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   35039448 35839117 35819019 35358999 34539067 34119158
            33999244 34019367 34209458 34789476 35039448


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