[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 240440
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240440
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-240545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0363
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN AR/NRN MS/WRN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 83...

VALID 240440Z - 240545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 83 CONTINUES.

LATEST AIR MASS MODIFICATION/DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
AN INCREASE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS WW 83 DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

SRN EXTENT OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT CURRENTLY EXTENDING SWD INTO
SRN AR AND ADDITIONAL DEEP LAYER ASCENT SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS WW 83.  REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM OUACHITA/CALHOUN COUNTIES AR TO NWRN
PRAIRIE COUNTY AR.  THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ON THE NRN EXTENT OF
STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING
ACROSS SRN AR AND VALUES ACROSS LA BEING MAINTAINED IN THE LOWER
70S.  THIS COMBINED WITH NERN EXTENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING
INTO NRN MS WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO SERN AR TO WRN MS.  STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR /50+ KT/ WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A THREAT FOR MIXED MODE
/LINEAR AND SUPERCELLS/ WITH EFFECTIVE SRH RANGING FROM 200-500
M2/S2 ALONG SSWLY LLJ FROM SRN LA TO SERN AR/NRN MS.

..PETERS.. 04/24/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...
SHV...

LAT...LON   33339299 34439274 36099144 36489133 36598719 33768837
            33829024 33949087 33369150 33339299

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