[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 091940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091939
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-092115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN INTO ERN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 764...765...

VALID 091939Z - 092115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 764...765...CONTINUES.

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.  BUT...ALONG A SLOW EASTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY...ACTIVITY IS
BASED NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE PROCESS OF
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A 50+
KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET CORE IS NOW NOSING THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY 23-00Z.  SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE...BUT
MOMENTUM/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN MORE THAN
STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY
ISOLATED TORNADOES...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 10/09/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35208754 36168658 37458463 38168361 38378294 37598201
            36738278 35538475 34978577 34808718 35208754

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