[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 090304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090304
KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-090430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0772
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST MO/NORTHEAST AR INTO SOUTHERN
KY/NORTHERN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 271...

VALID 090304Z - 090430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 271 CONTINUES.

TORNADO WATCH 271 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z...AND A
NEW/REPLACEMENT WATCH MAY BE NEED WITHIN THE HOUR FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHEAST MO/NORTHEAST AR INTO SOUTHERN KY/NORTHERN TN.

GENERAL WEST-EAST BAND OF STORMS...SOME ALREADY
STRONG/SEVERE...CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AR/FAR
SOUTHERN MO INTO WESTERN KY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING WITHIN AN ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME FOCUSED ALONG/JUST NORTH
OF WEST-EAST SURFACE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE
REGION...AIDED BY A 40+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET PER REGIONAL
WSR-88D VWP DATA. STRONG SOURCE REGION INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE
ADJACENT WARM SECTOR...WITH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
3400 J/KG MUCAPE SAMPLED VIA THE 00Z LITTLE ROCK OBSERVED RAOB.
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
UPDRAFT ROTATION/MAINLY ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
HAIL...WITH STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF SOME SMALL SCALE BOWS/LEWPS CAPABLE
OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS/PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

..GUYER.. 05/09/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36739110 37098809 37438454 36328491 36038828 35979046
            36739110



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