[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 012022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012021
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-012115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AR/FAR SOUTHERN MO INTO WESTERN KY/WESTERN
TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 012021Z - 012115Z

AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN AR/FAR
SOUTHERN MO INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF TN/KY. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
APPEARS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES GRADUAL SE MOVING SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SW-NE FROM NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHERN IL. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES
TO MARKEDLY DESTABILIZE/RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY
CONVECTION...AND ON THE PERIPHERY OF A MORE CONTEMPORARY MCS/OUTFLOW
ACROSS TN. OVERALL...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/DEVELOP
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITHIN A WEAKLY
CAPPED/UNSTABLE/MODIFIED OUTFLOW REGIME...WITH LARGE SCALE UPLIFT
AIDED BY THE EASTWARD TRANSITIONING CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX
ACROSS SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR. MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODERATELY STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW...WITH MCV ENHANCED 40 KT MID LEVEL WINDS IMPLIED PER CONWAY MO
PROFILER DATA...WILL FAVOR WELL-ORGANIZED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. IF INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS
CONTINUE...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

..GUYER.. 05/01/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36899456 36899282 37058967 36368802 35398847 34979042
            35429375 36899456



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