[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 110032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110031
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-110230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0226
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE AR...SE MO...WRN KY/TN...SRN
IL...CNTRL/SRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 110031Z - 110230Z

PEAK WIND GUSTS WITH DEVELOPING STORMS COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY
EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.  BUT...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY SUB-SEVERE.

FRONTOGENETIC FORCING NEAR A SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD
FRONT HAS SUPPORTED INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
PAST HOUR OR SO...APPARENTLY AS IT FINALLY INTERACTED WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL AXIS OF STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING AND TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. STILL MAXIMUM CAPE IS FAIRLY WEAK...AND UNLIKELY TO
IMPROVE...AS DIURNAL COOLING IS NOW ALREADY UNDERWAY.  DESPITE THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/HIGH LEVEL
JET...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW OF 50-60
KT...THE BULK OF THE GENERALLY LOW TOPPED STORMS APPEAR TO REMAIN
BELOW...AND UNAFFECTED BY...THE HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW.  THIS PROBABLY
WILL LIMIT THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN A WEAK LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...MODELS DO
SUGGEST A PRE-FRONTAL 40 KT 850 MB JET WILL INTENSIFY IN EXCESS OF
50-60 KT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER 03Z.
BUT...BY THIS TIME...A STABILIZING AIR MASS SEEMS LIKELY TO
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING/DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..KERR.. 03/11/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...
LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   35189309 36329183 36879153 38538957 39058905 39548878
            39928799 40008692 40048634 39738546 39228538 38158619
            36988736 35898875 35078996 34519222 34789312 35189309



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