[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sun Jun 28 18:27:44 CDT 2009


ACUS11 KWNS 282327
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282327
TNZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-290130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0627 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN MS...W-CENTRAL/NWRN GA...SERN
TN...AL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 530...532...

VALID 282327Z - 290130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
530...532...CONTINUES.

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OVER WW AREA...FROM ERN TN ACROSS ERN AL/WRN
GA AND CENTRAL MS...STILL MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS NEAR
SVR LIMITS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. A FEW MORE TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP...PRIMARILY BEFORE SUNSET ALONG INTERSECTIONS OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...WITH BRIEF/LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.
 HOWEVER...GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARD LESSER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND MORE LOCALIZED/MRGL SVR POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...GIVEN COMBINED STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM
1. EVER-EXPANDING OUTFLOW POOLS PRODUCED BY EARLIER ACTIVITY...AND
2. DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND RELATED INCREASE IN MLCINH AFTER 00Z.

THEREFORE...REMAINING PORTIONS WWS SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED.

UNTIL THEN...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST FAVORABLE
JUXTAPOSITION OF PARAMETERS SUPPORTING SVR POTENTIAL WILL SURROUND
ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER NERN THROUGH E-CENTRAL AL...WITH 2000-3000
J/KG MLCAPE THROUGH ABOUT 01Z...AND 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDE IN SUPPORT OF MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION.

..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   31868948 33209053 33299003 33068861 32898767 33618702
            34358753 34958655 35108506 35898398 35918327 35668341
            35198422 34858431 34008398 33178329 32228389 31918419
            31958508 31738519 31748541 31628542 31628616 31868948



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