[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 272327
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272327
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-280030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1361
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0627 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA...NRN SC...SERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526...

VALID 272327Z - 280030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526
CONTINUES.

AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUES
FOR WW 526. HOWEVER...DUE TO WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING...THE THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND WW 526 WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z.

SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
EXTENDED SW ALONG THE NC COAST TOWARD NRN SC AND THEN WWD ACROSS NRN
GA AND INTO TN. LOW 70S DEWPOINTS RESIDE ALONG THE SC/NC PORTION OF
THE FRONT...WITH UPPER 60S LOCATED FARTHER W OVER GA. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING /TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT/ CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG.

THE PRIMARY NEGATIVE FACTOR THUS FAR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
ROBUST AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS A LACK OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING. WV IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE
REGION RESIDES ALONG THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
JET...WITH PRIMARY VORT MAX MIGRATING E INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -4 DEG C PER RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/ AND LITTLE IF ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...STORMS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO REMAIN STRONG AND PERSISTENT.
THEREFORE...DESPITE FAVORABLE CAPE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 40 KT/...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED/MARGINAL. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
AN EXTENSION OF WW 526 AND/OR ADDITIONAL WW/S WILL NOT BE NECESSARY.

..GARNER.. 06/27/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   35188460 35857751 33417751 32738461 35188460

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