[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 222326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222325
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-230030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222325Z - 230030Z

POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FOR AN ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
CLUSTER ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY AND PERHAPS AS FAR
S AS MIDDLE TN.

RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN
TSTM COVERAGE FROM SERN IL TO 20 MI N BWG.  RADAR/SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATE A NWWD ARCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR NASHVILLE NNWWD
TOWARDS EVANSVILLE.  THE AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY TO THE W OF THIS
BOUNDARY/RESIDUAL STATIONARY FRONT HAS BECOME MODERATELY-VERY
UNSTABLE AS STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING HAS LED TO TEMPS RISING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

AS LEADING EDGE OF STORM CLUSTER OVER W-CNTRL KY CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE ITS COLD POOL...EXPECT STORMS TO BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE
SSE TOWARDS THE BWG VICINITY AND POINTS S THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AN
INITIAL THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL LIKELY WANE AS
FORWARD PROPAGATING TSTM/COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT POSES MAINLY AN ISOLD
DMGG WIND THREAT.  FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER SERN IL MAY
CONTINUE TO AID IN BACKBUILDING/ADDITIONAL STATIONARY UPWIND
DEVELOPMENT AS INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVE SEWD TOWARDS THE WABASH/OH
RIVER CONFLUENCE.  WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES /UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR/ MAY
RESULT.

..SMITH.. 06/22/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   36158720 37668811 38798878 39068847 39038812 38538763
            38078725 37758643 36988599 36208627 35938655 36158720

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