[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 181749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181748
GAZ000-SCZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-181845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY AND TN...WRN NC INTO THE MTNS OF SC...AND
NRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461...

VALID 181748Z - 181845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461
CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ERN KY AND TN...WRN NC INTO THE MTNS OF
SC...AS WELL AS NRN GA. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS
INDICATE THAT FORWARD PROPAGATING QLCS IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES INTO ERN KY AND WRN NC...WHERE ONLY MODEST
SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS ARE OBSERVED. HOWEVER...THE SRN FLANK
OF THIS MCS HAS EXPERIENCED A BURST IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...LIKELY DUE TO COLD POOL/GUST FRONT INTERACTION WITH
STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J PER KG/.
THESE LARGE INSTABILITY VALUES EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH GA...AND ARE
COINCIDENT WITH A THERMAL AND MOISTURE AXIS/GRADIENT. GIVEN THE
POSITION OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER LA...BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG
/30-40 KT PER AREA VWP DATA/ NNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM TN S INTO GA
WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM MAINTENANCE AND
CONTINUED FORWARD PROPAGATION. IF STORM PROPAGATION CONTINUES TO
OCCUR IN THE DIRECTION OF INSTABILITY AXIS OVER GA...THEN A
CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE FAVORED...ALONG
WITH SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

..GARNER.. 06/18/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...
HUN...

LAT...LON   36658668 36698548 37588455 37568407 33458207 33478504
            36658668

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