[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 151856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151856
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-152000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1134
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/NERN AR/FAR SRN IL/SWRN KY/WRN AND MIDDLE
TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419...

VALID 151856Z - 152000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419
CONTINUES.

PRIMARY THREATS REMAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN WW 419
THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MO TO
FAR NERN AR/SWRN TN...WHERE SFC-3 KM CAPE RANGING FROM 150-225 J/KG
COEXISTS WITH ENHANCED CORRIDOR OF NEAR GROUND VERTICAL VORTICITY.

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE KS/NEB BORDER TO THE VICINITY OF KANSAS CITY METRO AND THEN SEWD
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MO AND FAR NERN AR/SWRN TN TO NRN AL.  THE
STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED MAINLY ON THE RELATIVELY COOLER
SIDE OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN STORMS TENDING TO BE
PRIMARILY ELEVATED.  THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
ESEWD WITHIN AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/ AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /40-45 KT/ SUPPORTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
HOWEVER...RECENT STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT IN
OREGON COUNTY MO AND RANDOLPH COUNTY AR MAY HAVE AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND
SFC-3 KM SRH VALUES OF 200 M2/S2.

..PETERS.. 06/15/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   34998681 35058916 35438929 35479107 36109134 37739123
            37508928 37248854 37058704 36638699 36588611 35968594
            35288655 34998681

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