[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 151125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151124
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-KSZ000-151300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EASTERN KS TO CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO AND
FAR SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418...

VALID 151124Z - 151300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418
CONTINUES.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE TSTM WATCH 418 WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 12Z. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT /MAINLY HAIL
AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS/ WILL EXIST FROM FAR EASTERN KS AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO INTO WESTERN KY/FAR SOUTHERN IL THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. WHILE AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT
TERM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS THIS MORNING.

ACROSS SEVERE TSTM WATCH 418...A SMALL BUT WELL-ORGANIZED MCS
CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 40 KT
/GRADUAL ACCELERATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS/...NEARING THE
MANHATTAN VICINITY AS OF 1115Z. STRONG WIND GUSTS TO NEAR SEVERE
LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS MCS...AND PERHAPS PRE-MCS BOUTS
OF HAIL...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS EASTERN KS APPEARS
MARGINAL IN THE SHORT TERM LARGELY OWING TO A STABLE NEAR-SURFACE
LAYER.

FARTHER EAST...STRONG/SOME SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO WITHIN AN ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION REGIME
AS A LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TOWARD THE REGION. A FAIRLY UNSTABLE SOURCE
REGION AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 3400 J/KG MUCAPE PER
06Z OBSERVED LAMONT OK RAOB. PERIODIC BOUTS OF HAIL TO SEVERE LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT MAY
NOT NECESSITATE A WATCH...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

..GUYER.. 06/15/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38889738 39839607 38989282 38139011 36988825 36188936
            37209223 38339561 38889738

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net