[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 101405
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101404
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-101530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1020
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0904 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN INTO NRN MS AND NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101404Z - 101530Z

TSTMS ONGOING OVER WRN TN ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AND
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.  SLIGHT
RISK WILL BE ADJUSTED SWD WITH UPCOMING 1630Z ISSUANCE.

12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A QUITE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS EXISTS THIS MORNING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER MS VALLEY
WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F AND 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 15-17
K/KG.  THIS MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S.

PLAN VIEW PROFILER AND VWP DATA INDICATE ANTICYCLONIC MID TO
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A
CONTINUED SEWD MOTION OF ONGOING STORMS OVER WRN TN.  GIVEN THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A
BOWING SYSTEM CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 06/10/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   35229024 35888998 36128925 35918860 34928769 34278760
            33808784 33698849 34238953 35229024

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