[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 032310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032310
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-040045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0941
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...VA...MD...SRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325...

VALID 032310Z - 040045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325
CONTINUES.

THE SEVERE THREAT ONGOING ACROSS THE ERN PART OF WW 325 SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ISOLATED. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IN THE ERN
PART OF THE WATCH APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT BEYOND WATCH EXPIRATION AND MAY REQUIRE A LOCAL
EXTENSION.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AT 23Z SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER ERN VA WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING WWD FROM THE LOW INTO WRN VA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS FRONT...INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE MARGINAL. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST
EARLY THIS EVENING FROM NEAR A SFC LOW EWD TO NEAR THE COAST WHERE
RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. IN
THIS AREA...VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR LARGE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED AND MORE PERSISTENT SEVERE STORMS SHOULD EXIST ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE LOW INTO SRN MD.
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE MAXIMIZED IN THIS AREA SUGGESTING AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT EXISTS. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR A
TORNADO WITH CELLS THAT INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY.

..BROYLES.. 06/03/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   36588002 36588165 37168188 37158206 37018208 36958234
            37218252 37508198 37648229 37858240 37938216 37668201
            37668173 37778176 37798143 37508125 37348139 37238114
            37358084 37448085 37388070 37488050 37398037 37797973
            37757963 38167944 38297983 39147929 39267943 39447906
            39707892 39677577 39877565 39867510 39617489 39697468
            39467440 38707511 38367509 37557567 37657625 37537643
            37547662 37457668 37387687 37497715 37307733 37157775
            37347858 37227882 37027886 37127928 37047956 36847966
            36828004 36708009 36618003 36588002

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