[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 202220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202220
NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-202345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1629
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS TO THE NC
PIEDMONT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 202220Z - 202345Z

ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT 00-01Z...GRADUALLY WANING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE SHORT-TERM/MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE THREAT.

TO THE E/SE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER ERN KY...RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICTED SEVERAL SINGLE TO MULTICELL TSTMS ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE NC PIEDMONT. 22Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE
ANALYSIS PLACED A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE AROUND 30 SW SOP WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EWD TO PAMLICO SOUND. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION WAS LOCATED ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY...RELATIVELY
COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -14 DEG C AT 500 MB/ HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO POCKETS OF MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 3 KM AGL
/PER AREA VWP DATA/...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ON THE TAIL END OF AN
APPALACHIANS/ERN GREAT LAKES JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION AND LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS.

..GRAMS.. 07/20/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   35577856 35017874 34667909 34677973 34758033 35078123
            35208207 35288281 35558333 36658321 37518287 38218257
            38168204 37928160 37338123 36698118 36068098 35577856

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