[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 160711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160711
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-160945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1574
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR AND WRN TN

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 160711Z - 160945Z

HVY RNFL WITH HRLY RATES 1-3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
10Z IN A 30 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM 20W KHRO-25NW KBVX-25
SW KDYR. IN ADDITION...ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MID-LVL SPEED MAX TRANSLATING
ACROSS CNTRL KS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A 15-20 KT SSWLY LLJ NOTED
DOWNSTREAM IN OK/AR.  THOUGH THE JET IS WEAK...SUSTAINED
CONVERGENCE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION INVOF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS SWRN TN AND NRN AR WAS YIELDING NUMEROUS TSTMS.  STORMS HAVE
FORMED IN A W TO E BAND ACROSS NRN AR WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER NORTH OF
THE KMEM AREA.

GPS PWAT PLOT SHOWS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.8 INCHES.  RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS...WEAK CLOUD
BEARING SHEAR AND TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BACKBUILD SUGGEST THAT
TRAINING HVY RNFL WILL BE A THREAT ACROSS NRN AR AND WRN TN THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

IN ADDITION...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES EVIDENT IN 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL
COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT FOR WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD
LARGE HAIL.  ISOLD DMGG WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY AS
STORMS ATTAIN STRONGER COLD POOLS.

..RACY.. 07/16/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON   36339386 36469277 35948965 35578941 35388988 35599158
            35919311 36239385 36339386

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