[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 120541
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120540
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-120645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1527
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN-ERN AR/FAR SWRN TN AND NWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572...

VALID 120540Z - 120645Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572
CONTINUES.

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NERN/ERN AR INTO
NWRN MS FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  IN
ADDITION TO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HIGH PWAT VALUES /AROUND 2
INCHES PER 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE OZARKS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY/ WILL
SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES.

CLUSTER OF TSTMS LOCATED OVER NERN AR WITH A FEW LINGERING STORMS IN
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN MO WILL PROGRESS SSEWD INTO ERN AR/NWRN MS
BETWEEN 06-09Z.  WSR-88D VADS INDICATED A WLY 25 KT WLY LLJ
EXTENDING THROUGH NR AR TO THIS MCS WHERE STRONGEST STORMS WERE
LOCATED PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY.  DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN NOSE
OF THIS LLJ AND ATTENDANT TO A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING SEWD
FROM SERN MO TO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS MCS AS
IT TRACKS SSEWD.  VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE
INDICATIVE OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THIS REGION.
THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO A REGION OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE 3000-4000 J/KG/ EXTENDING FROM AR INTO NRN MS/ SWRN TN.
THIS COMBINED WITH VEERING LLJ TO WNWLY OVERNIGHT SUGGESTS STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SSEWD WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL.

..PETERS.. 07/12/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36519209 36499076 36309071 36179022 35989022 35948967
            35139019 34069017 34019066 33959146 34349174 35039196
            35359213 35489181 35959196 36109216 36519209

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