[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 050103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050102
KYZ000-TNZ000-050130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0802 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN KY AND NRN MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 549...

VALID 050102Z - 050130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 549
CONTINUES.

NEW WW DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 549... GIVEN
A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAKENING BOW ECHO MOVING EWD ALONG
THE KY/TN BORDER.  THIS RECENT TREND IN RADAR DATA MAY BE INDICATIVE
OF THIS TSTM COMPLEX BEGINNING TO OUTRUN THE NERN EXTENT OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY.  ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /40-50 KT/ REMAINS
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT
SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS TSTMS PROGRESS EWD
OF WW 549 BY 0130Z.

FARTHER W...TSTMS OVER WRN TN WERE LOCATED WITHIN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT.  THIS SUGGESTS
ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING EWD FROM WRN INTO MIDDLE TN WILL HAVE A
THREAT TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL.  IF WRN TN STORMS REMAIN STRONG...THEN ADDITIONAL MIDDLE TN
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO WW 549.

..PETERS.. 07/05/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35358967 36028919 36628802 37078700 36938543 36858485
            36358472 35898470 35328512 35098569 35178696 35238830
            35358967



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