[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 042228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042227
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-042330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND SERN MO/FAR NERN AR/FAR SRN IL/WRN KY/WRN
TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547...

VALID 042227Z - 042330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547
CONTINUES.

GIVEN DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY AND RECENT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OF THE LINE OF TSTMS WITHIN WW 547...ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES WITHIN WFO PAH/MEG MAY NEED TO BE ADDED OR A NEW WW MAY BE
REQUIRED SOON.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF WW 547 INTO WRN
KY/WRN TN HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE GIVEN RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S/ IN PLACE AND
SURFACE HEATING.  THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COMBINED
WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 50 KT ATTENDANT TO STRONG WNWLY MID
LEVEL JET SPREADING ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
STORM ORGANIZATION AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD THIS EVENING.

REGIONAL RADARS AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
THE TSTM COMPLEX EXTENDING FROM FAR SRN IL THROUGH FAR SERN MO/NERN
AR HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED TO 40 KT.  THIS INCREASE IN
INTENSITY APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ALONG INTERSECTION OF THIS LINE OF
STORMS WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD THROUGH SRN KY.  A
TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS BOUNDARY WHERE 0-1 KM SHEAR IS 20-25 KT.

ISOLATED TSTMS LOCATED OVER MIDDLE TN APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED GIVEN
STRONGER SURFACE BASED CINH...WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..PETERS.. 07/04/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   35789085 36679005 37468964 38218934 38278831 37828712
            36778657 35978684 35378735 35148819 35108937 35159000
            35789085

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