[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 041653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041652
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-041745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1426
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...AR...ERN OK...SRN IL/IND...WRN KY/TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041652Z - 041745Z

SWRN FLANK OF OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS NRN OK/SWRN MO
INTO NWRN AR.  AIRMASS AHEAD OF MCS CARCASS IS BEGINNING TO
DESTABILIZE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES NOW ON THE ORDER
OF 7-8 C/KM AND MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG.  AS INHIBITION
WEAKENS IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG LEADING EDGE
OF OUTFLOW/SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.  THIS APPEARS TO BE ONGOING WITH NEW
UPDRAFTS STRENGTHENING OVER NWRN AR/ECNTRL OK ATTM.  ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
PROVE ADEQUATE...GIVEN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION.

DOWNSTREAM...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOTICEABLY WEAKER NEAR THE MS
RIVER...CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SERN MO/NERN AR INTO WRN TN.  SOMEWHAT
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION WOULD SEEM TO BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS.

..DARROW.. 07/04/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35429510 36129392 37489152 37388722 35299027 34709464
            35429510



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