[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 280532
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280531
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-281030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0054
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...MID-MS VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 280531Z - 281030Z

MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL PIVOT EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND EXPAND
NWD IN THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH 12Z...LIQUID-EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05
TO 0.15 IN/HR WILL REMAIN COMMON. FREEZING RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP
INTO/BE MOST PREVALENT FROM THE MEMPHIS TN TO CINCINNATI OH TO
PITTSBURGH PA TO BALTIMORE MD METRO AREAS. SLEET WILL SHIFT INTO THE
JONESBORO AR TO COLUMBUS OH TO PHILADELPHIA PA AREAS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES NEAR 1 IN/HR SHOULD DEVELOP IN AN AXIS FROM
EVANSVILLE IND TO AKRON OH TO BINGHAMTON NY.

EVENING MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE ACCELERATION OF
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER MO
VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/. ATTENDANT
INCREASE IN DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL LEAD TO INTENSIFYING
CYCLOGENESIS WITH SURFACE CYCLONE JUST N OF TUP AT 05Z TRACKING NEWD
TO NEAR HTS AT 12Z. A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL
WARM THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH PRECIPITATION
RATES/AREAL COVERAGE INCREASING. ELEVATED WARM NOSE OF
ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CORRESPONDINGLY SHIFT NWD LEADING
TO TRANSITIONS OF SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN. FARTHER
WEST...LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE ACROSS THE MID-MS TO LOWER OH VALLEYS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SEWD SHIFT IN PTYPE TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW. GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD /INTO CNTRL TX AS OF 0515Z/ AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF
SIGNIFICANT FROZEN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-MS
AND LOWER OH VALLEYS.

..GRAMS.. 01/28/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...
PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...
MEG...

LAT...LON   41768095 42517846 42557667 42277543 41487408 40917368
            39967417 39087477 38617545 38677645 39057753 39457881
            39498042 38858178 37978359 36878623 34888909 34569051
            34989092 35569098 36719096 37798940 39678623 41298224
            41768095



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