[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 280025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280025
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-280600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...OH VALLEY REGION...NRN/NERN AR...PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL MO...THE OZARKS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL...SRN IL AND IND

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 280025Z - 280600Z

A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING LOCATIONS FROM NRN AR NE INTO THE OH VALLEY
REGION...WITH FRZ RAIN RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.15 IN/HR. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES /0.50 TO
1.0 IN PER HR/ MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE MO OZARKS EAST INTO
SRN IL BY 03-06Z.

RECENT WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG S/W TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. PRONOUNCED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS BEEN SPREADING ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY REGION...WITH ANOTHER REGION OF ASCENT MOVING EAST
ACROSS NRN TX/SRN OK. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT STRONG LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPR LVL
JET EMBEDDED WITHIN DOWNSTREAM RIDGE LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND
INCREASES TO 170+ KT...WHILE 140 KT JET EXITS INTO AR/MO FROM THE
BASE OF THE SRN PLAINS TROUGH. MESOSCALE ASCENT WITHIN THIS REGIME
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A TIGHT LOW LVL THERMAL GRADIENT POSITIONED
FROM NRN AR NORTHEAST ALONG THE OH RIVER AND INTO WESTERN WV. 40 KT
LLJ LOCATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL IMPINGE UPON THIS THERMAL
GRADIENT...RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT ZONE OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW
LVL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FRONTOGENESIS. THEREFORE...ONGOING
BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z.

FRZ RAIN...WITH RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.15 IN/HR SHOULD PERSIST ALONG THE
OH RIVER THROUGH 06Z. OVER WV...STRONG WAA ON THE NOSE OF A 50+ KT
850 MB JET MAY RESULT IN A GRADUAL TRANSITION OF FRZ RAIN TO RAIN
DURING THE 03-06Z TIME PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. FARTHER WEST OVER NRN AR...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST FRZ
RAINFALL MAY SHIFT SLOWLY ESE TOWARD THE NERN PORTION OF THE STATE
AS COLDER LOW TO MID LVL AIR BEGINS TO ERODE ELEVATED WARM NOSE.

OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MO/OZARKS AND SRN IL...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A ZONE OF
STRENGTHENING MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS. THOUGH RATES MAY BE MARGINAL
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING...INCREASING ASCENT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...MAY RESULT IN RATES APPROACHING 1 IN/HR BY
06Z.

..GARNER.. 01/28/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...
IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36048847 35389015 35059119 35119238 35439337 35889388
            36429304 36789182 37139242 37929364 39159142 39758798
            39888403 40328096 40197940 39247934 38887953 38717969
            38348038 37938219 37638440 37158641 36248824 36048847



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net