[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 271816
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271816
KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-280015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NRN AND WRN AR...MO OZARKS AND BOOTHEEL

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 271816Z - 280015Z

WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
OK...WRN AND NRN AR...AND THE MO OZARKS INTO THE BOOTHEEL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST FRZ RAIN RATES /0.05 TO 0.15 IN PER HR/
WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF AR INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL.
FURTHER NORTH OVER THE MO OZARKS...A MIX OF SLEET AND FRZ RAIN WILL
OCCUR...WHILE SLEET AND SNOW BECOME INCREASINGLY PREDOMINANT OVER
OK.

SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 16Z PLACED A WEAK LOW OVER EASTERN
TX...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW THROUGH S-CENTRAL TX...AND A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH LA INTO MS AND TN.
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
IN A COLDER/DEEPER SUBFREEZING LOW LVL AIRMASS OVER ERN OK AND SRN
MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM
FRZ RAIN TO MAINLY SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF AN ADM TO FSM TO FAM LINE AFTER 21Z.

FARTHER EAST...STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FOCUSED OVER THE NRN HALF OF AR INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL THIS
AFTERNOON...YIELDING HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.15
IN/HR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A SHALLOW /600-800 M AGL/
SUBFREEZING LAYER WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD SHIFT TOWARD CENTRAL AR AFTER 21Z AS SURFACE WINDS BACK
FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND GLAZING THROUGH 00Z/28.

..GARNER.. 01/27/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...
OUN...

LAT...LON   35279681 36659456 38109128 37918995 36738933 35059036
            34129296 34119301 33849618 33969744 35279681



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