[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 270544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270544
WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-271045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST MON JAN 26 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...OZARK PLATEAU TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 270544Z - 271045Z

ONGOING ICE STORM WILL SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT FROM NRN AR/SERN MO
TOWARDS SWRN WV. SLEET SHOULD REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE FARTHER N
ACROSS SRN IL AND ALONG THE OH RIVER. WIDESPREAD LIQUID-EQUIVALENT
RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.15 IN/HR...LOCALLY APPROACHING 0.30 IN/HR WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT ICE/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS.

RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES E/NEWD EXPANSION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION STRETCHING FROM E-CNTRL OK/NWRN AR TO SRN IND/WRN KY
AS OF 0530Z...POWERED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION WITH
A 50-55 KT LLJ PER REGIONAL VAD PROFILERS. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z AS EVENING MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN
SUGGESTING THAT MORE INTENSE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BROADEN RESULTING
IN A LARGER AREA OF MORE STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT. THUS...OBSERVED
PRECIPITATION RATES FROM 0.05 TO 0.15 IN/HR SHOULD EXPAND E/NEWD AND
BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE WRN PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED IN 00Z SGF/LZK RAOBS WILL SUPPORT
BURSTS OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RATES OF PRECIPITATION TO AROUND 0.30
IN/HR...AS NOTED IN 05Z FAYETTEVILLE AR METAR. PTYPE TRANSITION
LINES BETWEEN RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
SLOWLY NWD GIVEN ONLY WEAK NEAR-SURFACE FLOW...AND THE COUNTERING
EFFECTS OF SATURATION DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION VERSUS
LATENT HEAT RELEASE/DOWNWARD HEAT FLUX WHERE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ARE OCCURRING.

..GRAMS.. 01/27/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...
MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   38878200 38348146 37658149 37218228 36818449 36608676
            36198898 35489090 35119240 35109284 35309369 35619391
            36239370 36949289 37599157 38208900 39158394 39218302
            38878200

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