[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 270100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270059
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-270600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST MON JAN 26 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...AR...SRN MO...SRN IL...SRN IND...WRN
KY...NWRN TN

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 270059Z - 270600Z

FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS MOST OF ERN OK INTO
AR AND SRN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN RATES IN
EXCESS OF .05 IN/HR.  ADDITIONALLY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET WILL
DEVELOP ALONG NRN FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER SRN MO INTO SRN IL
BY MIDNIGHT.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION AS WARM CONVEYOR
SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM.  FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY...HOWEVER
CONVECTION IS DEEPENING AND EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE AS INFLUENCE
OF UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.  FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE PREVALENT
ACROSS ERN OK AND AR WITH A TRANSITION INTO A MIXED PHASE OF
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF MO INTO SRN IL.  00Z
SOUNDING FROM SGF STRONGLY SUGGESTS MODERATE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO SLEET...WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
DUE TO ROUGHLY 300 J/KG MUCAPE ABOVE 700MB.  SNOW MAY ALSO MIX IN
FARTHER NORTH NEAR I70...ALTHOUGH SNOW RATES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
HALF INCH PER HOUR OR LESS.  FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ZONE MAY ACTUALLY
SAG SOUTH A BIT ACROSS MO LATER THIS EVENING AS DEEPER COLDER
CONVECTION SEEDS LOWER CLOUD ELEMENTS.

..DARROW.. 01/27/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...
SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36149631 37619390 38539083 39078829 38408676 36618759
            35938960 34169246 34009523 34439677 36149631

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