[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 281747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281747
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-282145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR...WRN TN/KY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 281747Z - 282145Z

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS S CNTRL
MO OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A RECENT REPORT OF 2 INCHES AN
HOUR AT FT WOOD. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ESEWD TOWARD SERN
MO...NERN AR...AND WRN TN/KY. RATES OF NEAR 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR
CAN BE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER SNOWFALL IN ADDITION TO RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN KS...WILL QUICKLY
DIVE SEWD REACHING CNTRL AR BY 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY BUILDING ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES...AND
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OUTLINE AREA WHILE
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL QUICKLY COOL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. A NW TO SE ORIENTED BAND OF MDT/HVY
SNOW IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING INTO SERN MO...WRN KY/TN...AND NERN AR ALONG
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE/FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS. SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
CONTRIBUTING AS WELL...WITH RELATIVE WARM/MOIST AIR TO THE EAST
BEING DRAWN ATOP THE ARCTIC AIRMASS/SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE
WEST. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN RECENT PADUCAH VAD WIND PROFILES.
12Z SPRINGFIELD SOUNDING SHOWS SATURATED COLUMN GENERALLY FROM THE
SURFACE THROUGH 500 MB...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE THAT
AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM WILL REMAIN SATURATED AS
WELL...PROMOTING MDT/HVY SNOW. EXPECT THIS TREND TO GENERALLY SHIFT
ESEWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW.

..HURLBUT.. 02/28/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   35618964 35569069 36019160 36769226 37659234 37929189
            37629010 37048896 36088897 35618964



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