[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 110831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110830
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-111000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO / SRN IL / WRN KY / NERN AR / WRN TN / NWRN
MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 14...

VALID 110830Z - 111000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 14 CONTINUES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WW AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES WILL EXIST FROM A CGI/POF SWD THROUGH THE BVX/JBR CORRIDOR
THROUGH 10Z.  ADDITIONALLY...AREAS E OF WW 0014 OVER SRN IL AND WRN
KY ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE OR THE LOCAL
EXTENSION IN AREA OF WW 0014.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DEFICIENT IN THE STRENGTH OF LEAD
SURFACE LOW LOCATED SE OF TBN AS OF 08Z.  WHILE THIS FEATURE APPEARS
TO HAVE FILLED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR...THE ISALLOBARIC
RESPONSE TO IT IS STILL LOCALLY BACKING SURFACE WINDS AND ENHANCING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO ITS E/SE.  MOREOVER...08Z SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
AND AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING OVER THE MO BOOTHEEL/WRN
KY/NERN AR/WRN TN/NWRN MS ALONG A VERY INTENSE /60-70 KT/ LLJ
AXIS.

DESPITE THE MARGINAL ABSOLUTE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF AOB 500 J PER
KG/...THE STRONG DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTIONS /AND RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION/ COUPLED WITH THE EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND BROAD
ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS ARE MAINTAINING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  THIS THREAT MAY DEVELOP E OF WW AREA INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY
BY 0930-1000Z AND AN ADDITIONAL WW OR EXTENSION OF WW 0014 MAY NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED.

..MEAD.. 02/11/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   38899170 38709034 37768937 36738900 36488847 35478915
            34548970 34129021 33789055 33989252 35089212 36259181
            36509240 38899170

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