[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 192248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192247
ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-192345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0547 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS / WRN TN / OH-MS RIVER CONFLUENCE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171...172...

VALID 192247Z - 192345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
171...172...CONTINUES.

SEVERE THREAT WILL END VERY SHORTLY FOR WW 171 ACROSS SERN MO.
FURTHER S OVER WRN TN AND NERN MS...ANY REMAINING SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF LINE SEGMENT OVER WRN TN AND
PERHAPS IN NERN MS.

LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE COMPOSITE SHOWS STORMS PUSHING EWD ACROSS
PARTS OF WRN TN AND NEAR THE OH/MS RIVER CONFLUENCE.  THE MOST
ROBUST ACTIVITY IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES HAS BEEN CONFINED TO WRN
TN...POSING THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS.
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS NARROW THERMAL RIDGE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
LINE SEGMENT IN WRN TN EXTENDING NWD TO JUST E OF LOW LOCATED NEAR
PAH.  CURRENT THINKING IS MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT /CHARACTERIZED AS
MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 30-40 KTS/ ALONG AND
AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER WRN TN MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND/OR LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...AS DIURNAL STABILIZATION BEGINS TO OCCUR THE NEXT 1-2
HRS...EXPECTING SEVERE THREAT TO DECREASE ACCORDINGLY.

..SMITH.. 04/19/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33778827 33768931 33918943 34868917 35988918 36288948
            36528964 36828978 37268917 37548860 37198796 36628779
            35538799 33778827



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