[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 191715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191714
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-191815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0524
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO ERN/NERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN/KY...SRN
IL...SERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 191714Z - 191815Z

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE NEXT HR OR TWO
FROM CENTRAL INTO ERN/NERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN/KY...SRN IL AND SE
MO. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW POSITIONED
INVOF SEMO/SRN IL/WRN KY AT 16Z...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH
INTO THE LWR MS VALLEY...AND A SECONDARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING SSW
ACROSS AR. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A POTENT PV
ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS NRN AR. TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 60S
AND LWR 70S...COMBINED WITH MID/UPR 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS ARE
ALLOWING HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS TO BUILD NORTHWARD BENEATH A VERY
COLD MID LVL AIRMASS. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR STRONG
DESTABILIZATION...FAVORING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT STRONGER
MEAN WIND /40-50 KT/ WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF 100 KT UPR LVL JET
MAY RESULT IN FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL.

..GARNER.. 04/19/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   33939313 35619294 36799262 37509040 37618909 37108861
            35438932 34209046 33529247 33939313

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