[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 131709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131709
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-INZ000-MSZ000-131815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN MS/NWRN AL...MIDDLE TN...CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131709Z - 131815Z

FORCED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL. LARGE HAIL/DMGG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...ALTHOUGH ISOLD
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW...LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER THE KS/MO
BORDERS...HAS AIDED IN AMPLE SURFACE HEATING...WITH GENERALLY 60S
NOTED ACROSS A BROAD AREA...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S IN
WRN/MIDDLE TN AND CNTRL KY. THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN MOST MODEL
FORECASTS...GIVING A DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATER THAN FORECAST AS WELL. ALTHOUGH A CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED...THERE IS STILL A WEAK AMOUNT OF CIN TO BE OVERCOME. AS
MOISTENING OCCURS IN DEEP SLY/SSWLY FLOW AND HEATING
CONTINUES...EXPECT THE CAP TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...NOTED IN NERN AR...WILL AID
IN ASCENT...WITH FORCED CONVECTION MOST LIKELY INITIATING ALONG A
COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO WRN KY/TN. MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT DMGG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...ALTHOUGH ISOLD TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE.

..HURLBUT.. 04/13/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36318581 34548668 33938757 34008856 34778888 36118827
            37098781 37978709 37838600 37268565 36318581



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