[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 022236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022236
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-030000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0376
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT THU APR 02 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...NRN MS...WRN TN/KY...MO BOOTHEEL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022236Z - 030000Z

A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND
WIND...WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND A WW MAY BE NECESSARY.

A STRONG/COMPACT UPPER VORT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS
AND TN VALLEY REGION. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE AIR MASS HAS BEEN
DISRUPTED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION...A NARROW ZONE OF SURFACE
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT
COOLING ALOFT. THE RESULT IS AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...BUT VERY STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW.

ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN AR INTO NW MS SHOULD PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD WITH THE LOW. SFC WINDS AHEAD OF
THESE STORMS ARE RATHER WEAK...BUT STRONG PRESSURE FALLS JUST AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR. GIVEN THE COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...SOME HAIL IS LIKELY. STRONG FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
STORM RELATIVE INFLOW.

..JEWELL.. 04/02/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33009080 33869075 34939104 35369163 35949145 36618998
            36798898 36688858 36398837 34618824 33308880 32918923
            32778987 33009080

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