[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021904
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-022100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0371
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT THU APR 02 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF MIDDLE TN...W CNTRL KY AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF SRN IL/IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021904Z - 022100Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY AS FAR NORTH AS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...SUPPORTED BY AN INITIAL AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FORCING EMANATING FROM THE MUCH STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
 WHILE THIS FORCING DEVELOPS EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AND WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON...THE EXIT REGION OF THE
PRIMARY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY NOSE THROUGH
WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY.  DESPITE THE TENDENCY FOR BACKING
WINDS ALOFT...FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY...STRENGTHENING
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE
CYCLONE MIGRATING ACROSS ARKANSAS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME.  BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION LIKELY AS SURFACE DEW POINTS APPROACH THE LOWER 60S.
 ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 04/02/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37698864 38518782 38838595 37758526 36238580 36128648
            36208777 36908858 37698864

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