[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141124
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-141300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2269
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR / WRN TN / WRN MS / NERN INTO CNTRL LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 905...

VALID 141124Z - 141300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 905 CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW
AREA.

AS OF 11Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A FORCED BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION FROM JUST E OF MEM SWWD TO JUST W OF GWO TO E OF MLU.
LIGHTNING DATA AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS ARE IN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE BAND OVER LEFLORE AND SUNFLOWER
COUNTIES IN THE MS DELTA SWWD TO MOREHOUSE AND WEST CARROLL PARISHES
IN NERN LA.

BASED ON AREA VWPS...THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR RESIDES ACROSS
NRN PORTION OF WW AREA...NAMELY ERN AR...WRN TN INTO NRN MS WHERE
0-1 KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS 45-55 KT.  IN CONTRAST...RUC OBJECTIVE
FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF AROUND 500 J
PER KG/ EXISTS OVER SRN PORTION OF WW...FROM LA NWD INTO THE MS
DELTA.  AS SUCH...ABOVE-MENTIONED...VIGOROUS TSTM ACTIVITY APPEARS
TO POSE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAP OF THE STRONGER SHEAR WITH THE NRN EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AXIS.

AN EXTENSION IN WW AREA MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OVER
PARTS OF NRN MS SHOULD ONGOING STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY.

..MEAD.. 09/14/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

30469372 31539335 33519175 34729101 36059119 36499087
36608970 36318896 34338934 32369025 30979148 30329203

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