[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 041725
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041725
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-041930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT THU SEP 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL AND IN...WRN KY AND TN...FAR NERN MS AND
NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 041725Z - 041930Z

CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FOR FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER...SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING
TOGETHER THAT MAY LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MO WILL CONTINUE NEWD AS IT PHASES
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE N. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES PRESSURE
FALLS AHEAD OF THIS LOW OVER IL AND SRN IN...WHERE EXTENSIVE LOW
CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXIST. MEANWHILE...A NARROW AXIS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S EXTENDS NWD OUT OF MS INTO
WRN TN. JUST TO THE E...DRIER AIR OUT OF A SURFACE HIGH IS WORKING
TO KEEP DEWPOINTS LOWER OVER KY/IL/IN...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S F.

WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF -3
TO -5C CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY
REGION. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 18Z OVER MS AND WRN TN
INDICATE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 600 MB WHICH MAY SEVERELY
HAMPER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF DEEPER CONVECTION
WILL BE WHERE TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER 80S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S...OR FROM NERN MS INTO NWRN AL AND WRN TN. RADAR TRENDS
SHOW LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...WITH ONLY A FEW TOWERS BREAKING ABOVE
THE INVERSION CURRENTLY. N OF THIS AREA...MUCH WARMER SURFACE
CONDITIONS WILL BE NEEDED TO INITIATE SUSTAINED SEVERE CONVECTION.
THE MOST FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO
THREAT EXIST FROM WRN KY INTO SRN IL AND IN. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION.

..JEWELL.. 09/04/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...BMX...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

33958900 34988883 36208888 37098909 37848924 38358906
38798875 39178810 39148735 38858693 37588693 36528698
35318705 34668701 34118725 33998802 33838845

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