[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 311059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311058
KYZ000-TNZ000-311300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS KY.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 311058Z - 311300Z

TSTMS WITHIN BKN BAND OF CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY LOCALLY TO SVR
LEVELS AS IT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL AND SRN KY
THROUGH 15Z.  GIVEN ANTICIPATED AMBIENT KINEMATIC FIELDS AND
CLUSTERED/QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND.  ISOLATED HAIL OR BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

AT 1045Z...THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WAS EVIDENT FROM NEAR FFT TO JUST E
PAH...MOST INTENSE PORTION MOVING ESEWD APPROXIMATELY 40 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS BUTLER/GRAYSON/OHIO COUNTIES.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
TOWARD LOZ/SME AREAS...WITH OTHER DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION
POSSIBLE ALONG ADJACENT PORTIONS OF LINE.  FOREGOING AIR MASS IS
CHARACTERIZED BY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS
GENERALLY UPPER 60S F...AND SFC MOIST AXIS ANALYZED FROM MIDDLE TN
NEWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL KY.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MLCAPES INCREASING WITH TIME THROUGH MIDMORNING...INTO
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.  DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT...ALTHOUGH SLGT VEERING NEAR SFC WILL
IMPART SOME CURVATURE TO LOWEST KM AGL OF HODOGRAPH.  LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT STRENGTHENING WITH NEWD
EXTENT...BENEATH STRONGER SEGMENT OF WSWLY LLJ.  PRIND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN WITH WWD EXTENT...ALSO RELATIVELY FAVORING
POTENTIAL OVER CENTRAL/ERN KY.

..EDWARDS.. 05/31/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

36958844 37318669 38028550 38228376 37808316 37088376
36708475 36608733

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