[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 262214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262214
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-270045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN MS...WRN TN...CENTRAL/NRN AR.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262214Z - 270045Z

OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
TSTMS OVER DISCUSSION AREA.

SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN AR
RELATED TO COMBINATION OF STG SFC HEATING OF VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS...LIFT INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND SUBTLE ASCENT ALOFT
NEAR MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION.  MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND
VWP/PROFILER WINDS INDICATE SUBTLE MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN AR.  VWP/PROFILER AND SFC WIND DATA
INDICATES WEAKER AND MORE DIFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WWD EXTENT
ACROSS SRN AR FROM MS RIVER.  VIS IMAGERY FURTHER INDICATES THIS
TREND WITH HORIZONTAL ROLLS BEING MORE SHARPLY DEFINED NEAR MS
RIVER...BECOMING COARSER WITH WWD EXTENT BEHIND MIDLEVEL WAVE.  LOW
LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THEREFORE...SHOULD BE OPTIMIZED INVOF
SFC BOUNDARIES.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM JUST NE TUP NWWD
ACROSS HAYWOOD COUNTY TN TO NERN CORNER AR...MOVING NEWD ABOUT 10
KT.  THERE IT INTERSECTS QUASISTATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS
ANALYZED WSWWD ACROSS CLEBURNE/POPE COUNTIES AR THEN NWWD TO ANOTHER
BOUNDARY INTERSECTION IN BENTON COUNTY AR.  THIS THIRD BOUNDARY --
EMANATING FROM KS/MO CONVECTION -- IS MOVING SEWD 15-20 KT INTO NWRN
AR.  ALTHOUGH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION S OF THESE BOUNDARIES MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF/PULSE SVR...MORE ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR SVR THREAT
SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES...AND PARTICULARLY
THEIR INTERSECTIONS...WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...VORTICITY AND
LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES
1500-2000 J/KG...LOCALLY 2500 J/KG...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS ONLY
15-25 KT MOST AREAS.

..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...TSA...

36489386 36089333 35979238 36249035 36268921 35808843
35098815 34218817 33758835 33838894 34618941 34829024
34479155 34649342 35379413 36009409



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