[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 260318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260318
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-260515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...PORTIONS NERN AR...WRN KY...SERN AND
EXTREME E-CENTRAL MO INCLUDING BOOT-HEEL...NWRN TN...EXTREME SWRN
INDIANA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366...370...

VALID 260318Z - 260515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
366...370...CONTINUES.

SEVERAL MESOBETA AND SMALLER SCALE CLUSTERS OF STG-SVR TSTMS ARE
ORGANIZING UPSCALE INTO MCS...WITH CONTINUING THREAT OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS AS ACTIVITY MOVED GENERALLY EWD TOWARD LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION AND NWRN TN.

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND 500 MB ANALYSIS EACH INDICATE REMAINS
OF MCV OVER OZARKS OF S-CENTRAL/SERN MO...MOVING EWD.  RICHEST PLUME
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE -- ANALYZED ROUGHLY FROM EXTREME SRN IL SSWWD
DOWN MS VALLEY -- MAY REMAIN JUXTAPOSED WITH SMALL AREA OF WEAK
DEEP-LAYER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MCV.  THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN
BOTH FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND PRESENCE OF NEAR-SFC BASED EFFECTIVE
LIFTED PARCELS...IN SUPPORT OF A FEW MORE HOURS OF ORGANIZED SVR
POTENTIAL.  THEREAFTER...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CINH SHOULD BEGIN
TO TEMPER BOTH SFC-BASED INFLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO
PENETRATE TO SFC AOA SVR LEVELS.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE...WITH 0-3 KM SRH UP TO 300-400 J/KG AS SAMPLED BY PAH
VWP...NOT WELL FCST BY RUC.  WHILE LOCALIZED SUPERCELLULAR
STRUCTURES STILL ARE POSSIBLE...PRIND DOMINANT MODE THROUGH
REMAINDER EVENING WILL BE LINEAR..WITH LEWP/BOW FEATURES POSSIBLE.

..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...

35509158 36009101 36589085 36949028 37399022 37799006
38409029 38799005 39109032 39428742 38538760 38348709
37908691 37088712 36688728 36438860 35728895 35429030
35139049 34929133

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