[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 140011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140011
OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-140215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0908
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0711 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE SERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MS VLY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 140011Z - 140215Z

SCATTERED ONGOING CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS/LOUISIANA NORTH NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THESE ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ZONES OF
STRONGER/STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN A BROADER BELT OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
TROUGHS.  ACTIVITY FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM.  STORMS OVER EAST
TEXAS/LOUISIANA WILL PROBABLY BE MUCH SLOWER TO SHIFT EASTWARD.

ACTIVITY APPEARS MOSTLY BASED IN A MOIST LAYER RETURNING ABOVE A
RELATIVELY COOLER/DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RETREATING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS EASTERN STATES.  BUT...MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR HAVE BEEN
SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.  WHILE CONVECTION MAY BE
SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE MARGINAL/LOCALIZED AS THE SOURCE REGION FOR THE LIFTED PARCELS
BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..KERR.. 05/14/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...LMK...IWX...GRR...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MKX...MEG...JAN...LIX...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...LCH...SHV...

29979224 31289330 32209452 33449394 34719375 35929307
37039186 39179069 40978983 42488863 44238653 44408528
41748340 39158379 36898585 35618832 34309013 31409010
30348956 29428969

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