[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 101734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101734
KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-101930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0859
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE OK THRU MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101734Z - 101930Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT.  BUT...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MUCH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

CONVECTION INITIATING IN UPSTREAM STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION REGIME WILL TEND TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY STRENGTHENING DEEP
LAYER WESTERLY MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS IS STARTING OFF RELATIVELY COOL/DRY.  AND...AS ACTIVITY
SPREADS INTO THIS REGION...CIRCULATION OF THIS AIR ON AN EASTERLY
STORM RELATIVE INFLOW COMPONENT PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAKENING TRENDS.  AND...CLOUD COVER...WET-BULB COOLING MAY IN TURN
MAINTAIN THE STABILITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED IN THE UPSTREAM
NARROW PRE-COLD FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION.  AND...THIS MAY NOT BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF WW 293 UNTIL
CLOSER TO 11/00Z.

..KERR.. 05/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...EAX...

37759244 38289252 39209323 40279365 40569267 40429164
39049061 38149013 36758937 36028972 35649019 35529084
35729177



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