[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 100409
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100408
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-100615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0850
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CENTRAL AL/MS AND POSSIBLY FAR SRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 100408Z - 100615Z

AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW AS MOIST CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING OVER NERN MS...ALTHOUGH MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED IN NERN MS LATE THIS
EVENING...DESPITE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING
BEING VERY WEAK OR ABSENT OVER THE REGION.  HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY
INDICATES LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SRN MO/NRN AR
ATTM...WHICH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR INCREASE IN STORMS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE TN VALLEY AS IT SHIFT ESEWD.

EVENING SOUNDINGS AND LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DATA INDICATE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY INTO
AL WHERE MLCAPE IS SLIGHTLY GREATER...GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 45-50 KT.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED NEGATIVES.
HOWEVER...AREA WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY...
POSSIBLY AIDED BY APPROACH OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

..EVANS.. 05/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

34988597 33668545 33108785 33248976 34438968 35218817



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