[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 271355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271354
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-271600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0854 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271354Z - 271600Z

STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.  BUT... CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.

ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SLOWLY SPREADING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY STEEPER ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
WHICH HAS EMANATED FROM THE PLATEAU/SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION.
ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY OCCURRING ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KT 850 JET...
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE NOW SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WITHIN STRONG ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME.

AS MUCH MORE PROMINENT UPSTREAM IMPULSE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE 700
MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY NOSE EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  THIS IS FORECAST
TO BE COUPLED WITH A WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET.
AND...INCREASING INHIBITION/WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SEEM LIKELY
TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AS ACTIVITY
SPREADS EASTWARD THIS MORNING...PROBABLY AS EARLY AS THE 15-16Z TIME
FRAME.

..KERR.. 03/27/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

37288893 37748806 37858658 36718633 35888742 35178818
34888910 35209025



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