[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 191208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191208
GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-191415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN MS...MIDDLE TN...AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 191208Z - 191415Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR AN
ADDITIONAL WW IN THE NEAR TERM.  BUT...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
COULD STILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING.  TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

PRONOUNCED MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN BRANCH CIRCULATION EMANATING FROM THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THE PRIMARY FACTOR MINIMIZING
THE SEVERE THREAT TO THIS POINT.  INHIBITION FOR WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIAL...AND WEAK COOLING ON
THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL JET EXIT REGION HAS
NOT BEEN SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME IT.  AND...IT APPEARS THAT RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ABOUT TO
BECOME CUT-OFF.  HEATING OF A BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY
LOWER/MID 60S DEW POINTS...COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
MID-LEVEL COLD CORE...NOW STILL OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION...COULD
STILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE
LINE NOW SHIFTING INTO/THROUGH WESTERN ALABAMA.  BUT...THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY UNTIL AT LEAST THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME.

OTHERWISE...AT LEAST WEAK LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC UPDRAFT ROTATION
COULD STILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS...EMBEDDED WITHIN CONVECTIVE
LINE NEAR PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF 50-70 KT
SOUTHERLY 850 JET AXIS SPREADING ACROSS ALABAMA.  BUT...A RELATIVELY
COOL/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH FLOW EMANATING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE PROBABLY WILL MINIMIZE THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 03/19/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

34139020 35348870 35808652 34988541 33388512 31688553
30918657 30628773 30918849 32468866 33018986

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