[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Tue Mar 18 18:09:39 CDT 2008


ACUS11 KWNS 182307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182306
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NERN AR...SERN MO...NWRN
TN...FAR SRN IL AND WRN KY

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 182306Z - 190200Z

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE FROM TX NEWD INTO THE WRN OH VALLEY...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS LIKELY FROM NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/NERN AR...SERN MO...NWRN TN...FAR SRN IL AND WRN KY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.

AT 22Z...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM OWB TO JBR TO NEAR
TYR...WHERE A SURFACE WAVE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER SRN TX WILL LIFT NEWD THIS EVENING AND RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE ALOFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MID MS
...TN AND OH VALLEYS TONIGHT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS UPPER LOW...A
LOW LEVEL JET AT 60 TO 70 KT ACROSS AR/LA NEWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH RESULT IN DEEP SLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING STORMS.

A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...WITH PW/S BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES...
COMBINED WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE NEAR/NORTH OF FRONT IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...IS LIKELY TO
RESULT IN RAINFALL RATES AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

..IMY.. 03/18/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...

34709145 33939337 35229326 36829067 37748864 37318763
35698988

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