[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 151523
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151523
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-151630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0418
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR/WRN TN/NRN MS/NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151523Z - 151630Z

INCREASING HAIL THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN AR/WRN
TN/NRN MS/NWRN AL.

MAIN SURFACE LOW ACROSS ERN AR/WRN TN WILL QUICKLY MOVE EWD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS. WAA ATOP A STABLE LAYER OF AIR IN ADDITION TO
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE UPPER LOW HAS
INFLUENCED AN ELEVATED LAYER OF INSTABILITY. FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES OF NEAR 50 KTS AHEAD OF CURRENT CONVECTION WILL ALLOW
HAIL THREAT TO CONTINUE.

AHEAD OF SFC LOW...SLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THE
SFC...WITH UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S DEW POINTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS DOWNSTREAM. ADDITIONALLY...SFC HEATING SHOULD INCREASE...AS
SHOWN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WITH CLEARING ACROSS WRN TN AND NRN
MS/AL...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO
BECOME SURFACE BASED.

ATTM...EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO BE MARGINAL HAIL.

..HURLBUT.. 03/15/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...

34349053 34829148 36619071 36748847 35308754 34408792
34268922

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