[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 150931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150930
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-151100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0414
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0430 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR THRU WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN MS/NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114...115...

VALID 150930Z - 151100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
114...115...CONTINUES.

MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALONG/SOUTH OF UPPER JET AXIS CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE THE SOUTHERN LIMIT TO VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF SPEED MAXIMUM NOSING THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
THROUGH MID MORNING.  BUT...STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN FRINGE OF THIS FORCING...WHERE
STEEPER LAPSE RATES EXIST/ALONG WITH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INFLOW.  BY 12-13Z...THIS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND IN A NARROW BAND
FROM NEAR PINE BLUFF ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE
FLORENCE/MUSCLE SHOALS AREA OF NORTHWEST ALABAMA.  WHILE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE A WARM FRONTAL INVERSION
LAYER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MAINTAINING WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND A CONTINUING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 03/15/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

34319337 34659300 34739219 34749133 34979041 35208984
35368881 35218794 34828767 34198778 33868818 33918927
34119283

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