[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 150712
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150712
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-150845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0412
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AR INTO WRN TN/NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114...115...

VALID 150712Z - 150845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
114...115...CONTINUES.

IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION...BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS
ALREADY BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.  AND...THE EXIT REGION OF THE VERY STRONG MID/UPPER JET IN
THE CREST OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EAST
INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT.

STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO
ONGOING RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST THROUGH NORTH OF LITTLE
ROCK.  THIS IS WELL NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT...BUT A MOIST LAYER
ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION IS CONTRIBUTING TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG/ NORTH OF MID-LEVEL JET
AXIS.  THUS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACTIVITY TO CONSOLIDATE/ORGANIZE
AS IT SPREADS TOWARD MEMPHIS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WESTERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 09-11Z.  HAIL APPEARS TO BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.  BUT...SOME OF THIS COULD BE RATHER LARGE
IN STRONGER ROTATING CELLS...PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER.

..KERR.. 03/15/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

35629299 36229266 36459154 36278925 35878849 35418835
34548849 34078867 34008979 34269167 34609300

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