[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 140635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140634
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-140800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0397
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX THRU MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN AR...WRN TN/NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 110...

VALID 140634Z - 140800Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 110
CONTINUES.

THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
BUT...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

WHILE AN INITIAL PERTURBATION WITHIN LOW AMPLITUDE BROADER SCALE
TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS WEAKENING...
ANOTHER SPEED MAXIMA APPEARS TO BE DIGGING THROUGH THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...MUCH AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST RUC GUIDANCE.  THIS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A STRENGTHENING VORTICITY CENTER ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH THE 09-10Z
TIME FRAME.  AND...THIS COULD SUPPORT RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE THE LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW... ASSOCIATED
WITH A 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH IS SLOWLY IN THE PROCESS OF
VEERING FROM SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS IS WHERE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE WILL
REMAIN STRONGEST...ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.  AND...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STRONG CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN
STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.  MID-LEVELS
APPEAR DRY ENOUGH ACROSS THIS REGION TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

FARTHER EAST...SEVERE THREAT SEEMS EVEN MORE LIMITED WITH CONVECTION
SPREADING WITH WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO THE EAST OF
LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS...EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BUT...ISOLATED HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER.

..KERR.. 03/14/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

35159375 35619303 36069159 36449031 36468892 35668802
34598829 33978890 33489049 33239120 32929194 32919388
33559456 34449439



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