[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 071946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071945
KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-072315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST FRI MAR 07 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...FAR SERN MO...FAR WRN KY...FAR WRN
TN...FAR NWRN MS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 071945Z - 072315Z

BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL SHIFT E/NEWD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN AR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...SNOWFALL RATES AROUND
1 IN/HR WILL REMAIN LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER CONVECTIVE BURSTS
NEAR 2 IN/HR AT TIMES.

RECENT RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM A ROUGHLY 50
MILE WIDE CORRIDOR OF HEAVY SNOW CENTERED FROM ELD TO JBR. THIS
APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO FOCUSED ASCENT WITHIN
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NOW OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LATEST RUC/GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL PIVOT E/NEWD INTO AT LEAST
FAR NWRN MS/WRN TN AND KY THROUGH 00Z...WITH OVERALL QPF TRENDS
REMAINING NEARLY STEADY-STATE. MODEL FORECASTS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE
A HANDLE ON WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...MODIFYING FOR COOLER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES IN 12Z SHV RAOB WOULD SUGGEST THERE IS SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND CHARGE SEPARATION TO GENERATE LIGHTNING.
THUS...LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF INTENSE SNOW /REF 2.5 IN PER
HR OBSERVED RATE IN JEFFERSON COUNTY AR AT 19Z/...OUGHT TO CONTINUE.

..GRAMS.. 03/07/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

35838894 34799005 33829134 33279211 33299250 33829248
34809193 35959092 36749008 36978921 36788877

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net