[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 231728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231728
PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-231830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1876
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...LARGE PART OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231728Z - 231830Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN.  A WW IS POSSIBLE FOR
PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS.

17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM THE ERN PART OF LK ERIE
EXTENDING SSWWD TO 30 MI SE PIT TO NEAR HTS.  A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH/WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDS S FROM NEAR PIT TO 40 MI N TYS.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER IMMEDIATELY E/DOWNWIND
OF TSTMS OVER PA S TO ERN TN.

LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OVER
NRN WV BETWEEN THE TWO DISTINCT CONVECTIVE LINES /ONE OVER PA AND
THE OTHER OVER WV TO TN/ MAY DEVELOP TSTMS IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO.
DISCRETE TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NY MAY EXHIBIT SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS AT TIMES GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY.  THESE STORMS MAY POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT
IN ADDITION TO DMGG WINDS.  ONGOING RAIN SHIELD OVER CENTRAL/ERN PA
MAY TEND TO LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF SVR POTENTIAL /I.E. WEAKER
INSTABILITY/ ACROSS PARTS OF PA DESPITE MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES /40KTS 0-6KM SHEAR/ PER RECENT PBZ VWP.  SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS GREATEST FROM SWRN PA TO ERN WV/WRN VA WHERE
FILTERED SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A DESTABILIZING AIRMASS ON THE SRN
FRINGE OF MODERATE DEEP FLOW FIELDS.  FURTHER S ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
TN/WRN NC...A MORE MARGINAL SEVERE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO EXIST.
LINEAR STORM ORGANIZATION SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY
ISOLATED DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A SMALL HAIL THREAT.

..SMITH.. 07/23/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

37688157 38608101 39278106 39928033 41127948 42187911
42387871 42157803 41597778 40197837 38987878 37817957
36768040 36548084 36228122 35938241 35908314 35978400
36128421 36488360 36598344 37018262 37668165



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